Every HDB flat and every 99-year condo runs on the same clock. When it reaches zero, the property goes back to the State, and the owner gets nothing for it. What differs is what happens before then: who can end the lease early, who gets the value of the land, and what is left for the owners of a condo that no developer wants to buy.
Roov went through the official rules and its own resale records. The full rules, with every source, are in our new guide to lease decay for HDB flats and condos.
What the market already pays for a shorter lease
These are resales in Roov's URA and HDB records over the 12 months to October, grouped by the years left on the lease.
Leasehold condos and apartments (median psf):
• 90 years or more left: $2,020 • 80 to 89 years: $1,736, 14 per cent lower • 70 to 79 years: $1,600, 21 per cent lower • 60 to 69 years: $1,298, 36 per cent lower • 50 to 59 years: $1,151, 43 per cent lower • Under 50 years: $1,138, 44 per cent lower (60 sales)
HDB 4-room flats (median psf):
• 90 years or more left: $727 • 80 to 89 years: $693, 5 per cent lower • 70 to 79 years: $567, 22 per cent lower • 60 to 69 years: $536, 26 per cent lower • 50 to 59 years: $542, 25 per cent lower • Under 50 years: $576 (204 sales)
The condo line keeps falling. The HDB line flattens after about 70 years left, then turns up. That is not because the lease stops mattering. The oldest flats are in Queenstown, Toa Payoh, Bukit Merah and the other central towns, and the location props up their price. Compare like with like, as we did for 3-room flats in mature towns, and a flat with under 50 years left costs about half as much per square foot as one with 80 years or more.
None of these groups are like-for-like. Older buildings are also older, differently sized and differently placed. But the direction matches the official curve. Bala's Table, which SLA uses to value leases, puts a 60-year lease at about 80 per cent of the value of freehold, a 30-year lease at 60 per cent, and a 10-year lease at 30 per cent. The fall is fastest at the end.
HDB: the Government decides how it ends early
• SERS has stopped. It bought selected blocks at market value plus grants. Only a small share of flats were ever suitable, and HDB now says there are no plans for more. • VERS is next, and voluntary. MND told Parliament in September 2025 that the first sites are likely in the first half of the 2030s, scaling up by the late 2030s for flats around 70 years old. Residents will vote. Compensation will be lower than SERS, and its terms are still being worked out. MND also said it is "not necessary for every older flat" to go through it. • If your flat is not offered VERS, you can stay to the end of the lease. Flats past 60 years get a second round of upgrading, HIP II, so they last that long.
An HDB owner has no claim on the land. Whatever comes early comes from a scheme, not from selling the site.
Private: the owners decide, and the land is what they sell
Condo owners own something HDB owners don't: the right to sell the whole site en bloc. The price reflects what a developer can build there. The developer then pays the State a premium to renew the lease to 99 years, and the shorter the lease left, the bigger that premium.
The new collective sale law, passed on 8 September, lowers the consent needed for older estates. It will need 70 per cent of owners for developments aged 40 to 59 years and 65 per cent for those 60 or older, down from 80 per cent. Its start date is still to be announced. In practice developers are choosy, as we found in where Singapore's collective sales stand.
And what if no developer comes?
This is the question most owners never ask. The answer has four parts.
• Renewing the lease without a sale is not a realistic plan. SLA's policy is to let leases expire. Between 2008 and 2017, all seven residential renewals were granted so the sites could be redeveloped. • The building gets more expensive to keep. In this year's debate, the Minister for Law said modernising a single lift can cost $120,000 or more, and that maintenance fees and sinking fund contributions can rise by as much as half. About 20,000 homes in close to 250 developments are already over 40 years old. • Fewer people can afford to buy from you. CPF can be used in full only if the lease covers the youngest buyer to age 95, less if it doesn't, and not at all with under 20 years left. Bank loans shrink too. Every buyer of a short lease needs more cash. • At the end, the land and buildings go back to the State. Owners get no compensation. When the 60-year leases on 191 houses at Lorong 3 Geylang ran out at the end of 2020, the owners got help to relocate, not a payout.
So, for you
If you are buying an HDB flat, buy the years you will live there, and check that the lease covers the youngest buyer to 95. Don't pay extra for SERS: it has stopped, and VERS is voluntary, years away and still being designed.
If you are buying a leasehold condo, ask three questions. What will the lease be when you want to sell? Who will be able to borrow to buy it then? And is there a real en bloc case, or only hope? Roov's en bloc probability tool scores a site's chances, and the investment scorecard weighs the lease left against the price. Our freehold vs 99-year study found the years left matter more than the word on the title. And Stamford Court shows what one older building chose instead of waiting for a buyer.
If you already own an older flat and are thinking about the next one, our piece on rightsizing in retirement shows what a smaller home frees up. The HDB sale proceeds tool runs the lease-to-95 check.
Weighing an older flat or a leasehold condo, and want the lease worked into the numbers before you commit? Roov's agent can run them with you. Get in touch.