The Ministry of Education announced on 10 September that the Primary One registration framework changes from the 2027 exercise, for children starting Primary One in 2028. Two things change. Phase 2C, the phase for families with no alumni, volunteer or other connection to a school, grows from 40 reserved places to 60 at every school except those with a smaller intake; the extra twenty come out of Phases 2A and 2B, which keep their existing priorities. And at twelve schools in neighbourhoods where public housing makes up less than 40% of the homes within 2km, the 60 Phase 2C places are split equally into two tracks: one for families living within 2km of the school, one for families beyond it. Inside each track there is no home-school distance priority at all. If more Singaporean citizens apply than there are places in a track, it goes to ballot; places one track does not use flow to the other.
The twelve are Anglo-Chinese School (Junior), Anglo-Chinese School (Primary), CHIJ (Katong) Primary, Methodist Girls' School (Primary), Nanyang Primary, Ngee Ann Primary, Pei Hwa Presbyterian Primary, Raffles Girls' Primary, Singapore Chinese Girls' Primary, St. Margaret's School (Primary), Tanjong Katong Primary and Tao Nan. Between them they sit in Districts 10, 11, 14, 15 and 21.
Two forces, in opposite directions
We measured the school premium on 3 September: condos within a kilometre of sought-after schools had outrun their own districts by up to 16 percentage points over four years, on the back of the 2022 move that put more places into Phase 2C and made balloting tighter at every phase. That piece argued that a premium built on an allocation rule is exposed to that rule in a way a premium built on an MRT station is not. This is that exposure arriving, and it lands unevenly.
At the roughly 170 schools outside the twelve, the change strengthens the address. Sixty Phase 2C places instead of forty pulls more families into trying for a popular school without a connection, and twenty fewer places in 2A and 2B push alumni and volunteer families into balloting more often. Distance priority survives in every one of those ballots. At schools such as Rosyth, Nan Chiau, Catholic High or Maris Stella, the 1km ring is not weakened by this announcement; if anything it decides more outcomes than before.
At the twelve, the change cuts the specific edge that a sub-1km address bought in Phase 2C. A family at 0.9km and a family at 1.9km now sit in the same within-2km track with the same odds, and thirty of the sixty places are reserved for families who live beyond 2km altogether. The 1km ring still matters at these schools in Phases 2A and 2B, where distance breaks ties as before, and it still matters to a family that simply wants the school five minutes away. What it no longer buys is priority in the open phase, which is the phase most buyers of a school address were buying for.
What the districts say
These are district-wide figures from Roov's own records, twelve months to September, private resale only. They are not school-ring measurements, and the rings we measured in September ran well ahead of their districts.
District 10, home to Nanyang Primary and Methodist Girls': 909 resales at a median $3,700,000 and $2,255 psf, with psf up 1.1% on the twelve months before. District 11, with the two ACS primaries, Raffles Girls' and Singapore Chinese Girls': 457 resales at a median $3,050,000 and $2,127 psf, up 3.8%. District 15, with CHIJ Katong, Ngee Ann, Tanjong Katong and Tao Nan: 1,273 resales at a median $2,700,000 and $1,999 psf, up 6.8%. District 21, with Pei Hwa Presbyterian: 468 resales at $2,230,000 and $1,851 psf, up 7.6%. District 14, where St. Margaret's now sits: 692 resales at $1,600,000 and $1,764 psf, up 1.2%. Across the island, private resale psf rose 3.8% over the same period.
The two districts where the school ring was the clearest part of the pitch, 10 and 11, are the two growing slowest. That is not proof of anything yet; the twelve-school scheme has not run once. It is the direction to watch.
What it means for a sale or a purchase
If you own within a kilometre of one of the twelve and the school was part of your buyer's reason, the buyer pool that paid for that ring thins from the 2027 exercise. The premium is most defensible now, before the first two-track ballot shows families what the within-2km track is actually worth. Run what the sale would leave you and what a purchase costs in duty before deciding whether to move first.
If you are buying near one of the twelve for Phase 2C, stop paying for the last hundred metres. Inside 2km is the whole test now; 0.9km and 1.9km are the same ticket. Pay the ring premium at these schools only if your route is 2A or 2B, where distance still decides.
If you live beyond 2km of one of the twelve, a door opened. Thirty places a year at each are reserved for you. A family in District 14 or 19 can now plan for Tao Nan or Tanjong Katong from a home that costs a fraction of one inside the ring: Geylang's 4-room flats resold at a median $588,000 over the last twelve months, Kallang/Whampoa's at $720,000, against $2.7m for a District 15 condo. For an agent, the homes just outside 2km of the twelve have a new line in the listing.
At every other popular school, nothing here weakens the address, and the longer Phase 2C queue makes it count for more. Our school proximity guide sets out how the distance is measured and where the boundary falls; the location tool reports the nearest primary schools for any address.
The caution from September stands. Whichever side of this you are on, the school decides the postcode. It does not change the affordability test: what you can borrow against your income and age is the same either side of a school boundary.